TSPFundTrading.com, LLC is the leading professional financial service that provides expert market analysis of the Thrift Savings Plan funds. Our primary objective is to provide guidance for Federal employees and members of the uniformed services during both bullish and bearish markets. We are not affiliated with the TSP, Thrift Savings Plan, tsp.gov, frtib.gov, or any U.S. government agency or uniformed military services. Our IFT Allocation Service has been live since Jan 1, 2005.


As you know, the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) is an extremely important part of the federal retirement system. The TSP is widely recognized as one of the finest, most elegantly simple, and popular retirement plans of its kind. As of Dec 31, 2021, there are approximately 6.5 million participants and more than $827.2 billion in assets under management in the TSP. The TSP is the largest defined contribution retirement plan in the world. However, we have found that the majority of these investors do not have the proper guidance required to maximize the growth of their savings. Our service is exclusively devoted to helping federal employees increase their thrift retirement savings.

Our proprietary methodology is a rules-based system that uses technical analysis and statistical information from trading activity to forecast the price direction of the Thrift Savings Plan funds (G, F, C, S, and I Funds). Our track record speaks for itself!

Overall Performance of our TSP System

Since the inception of our service on January 1, 2005 to the end of 2023, if a member started with $100,000, their initial savings would have increased to $931,023 using our real-time trading returns. For the same time period, the buy-and-hold strategy of investing would have only increased to $328,182, while the G Fund increased only to $168,,035. These results do not include any personal contributions during those 19 years, nor any contributions and profits made during year 2023.

All trades adhere to the New Interfund Transfer Rule. The performance bar chart and table below display our overall results:

Performance Line Chart


click to enlarge

Performance Table

YearG FundBuy & HoldOur Returns
2005+4.40%+7.70%+19.24%
2006+4.93%+12.70%+21.47%
2007+4.87%+7.01%+16.27%
2008+3.52%-30.79%+10.59%
2009+2.75%+25.47%+36.87%
2010+2.74%+14.03%+15.63%
2011+2.45%+2.11%+5.54%
2012+1.42%+12.10%-2.15%
2013+1.89%+16.48%+15.42%
2014+2.26%+5.51%+14.69%
2015+2.04%+0.34%+10.39%
2016+1.82%+7.34%+4.73%
2017+2.33%+13.28%+16.84%
2018+2.91%-4.65%+2.26%
2019+2.24%+17.16%+20.51%
2020+0.97%+13.36%+17.18%
2021+1.38%+10.50%+11.38%
2022+2.98%-13.64%-9.66%
2023+4.22%+15.94%+10.12%
AVG+2.74%+6.94%
+12.60%
* We have outperformed the market 15 of 19 years.
* Each year our returns are nearly doubling the percentage gain over the buy-and-hold strategy.
* When compounding our returns, we are tripling the buy-and-hold strategy. (see below table)

Performance Bar Chart

Compounding Our Performance vs. Buy-and-Hold

Year Buy & Hold Trades
with 20% in each Fund (%)
Buy & Hold
Compounded Returns
starting with $100,000
Our Cumulative
Year-To-Date Returns (%)
Our Compounded Returns
starting with $100,000
2023 15.94 328182.44 10.12 931023.94
2022 -13.64 282556.67 -9.66 854305.96
2021 10.50 327200.13 11.38 954186.67
2020 13.36 296707.67 17.18 854688.59
2019 17.16 261224.77 20.51 728662.92
2018 -4.65 220775.18 2.26 595915.47
2017 13.28 231824.21 16.84 583970.65
2016 7.34 203255.30 6.73 495310.40
2015 0.34 189449.48 10.39 475272.01
2014 5.51 189287.41 14.69 429459.90
2013 16.48 179481.27 15.42 372873.43
2012 12.10 152592.67 -2.15 320719.82
2011 2.11 136019.12 5.54 330597.13
2010 14.03 135068.28 15.63 314428.30
2009 25.47 120290.54 36.87 271436.21
2008 -30.79 94221.93 10.59 194028.56
2007 7.01 130818.61 16.27 175308.19
2006 12.70 122184.92 21.47 149330.70
2005 7.70 107852.04 19.24 120968.82

Three primary facts to observe from the tables are: (1) the longevity of our service, (2) our long-term results consistently outperform the buy-and-hold strategy of investing, and (3) our compounded returns have tripled the returns of the buy-and-hold strategy. If your current trading style is not making these returns, we encourage you to consider our service. We are honored to serve federal government employees & military personnel who continue to prosper from our valuable service!

Our service has the best 'long-term' track record for trading the TSP Funds!

Performance of our TSP Allocation Service

Year 2024 YTD Returns (close: 05/24/24): Our members are up +8.49% YTD. We are outperforming the buy-and-hold strategy, which is only up +4.78%, the S Fund is +4.36%, and the G Fund up +1.72%. We are on pace for a +20% year.

Year 2023 Returns: Our members profited +10.12% YTD. We underperformed the buy-and-hold strategy of investing (20% in each fund), but outperformed our competitors. The leading performer on the TSPTalk site "Intrepid Timer" profited +10.01%, while "TSPTalk Plus" performed terribly at +0.30%. Our other service "TSPMarketTiming.com's S/G Model Portfolio System" profited +26.75% in Year 2023.

Overall Returns (2005-2023): Our TSP Allocation Service is averaging a profit of +12.60% per year in both bull and bear market cycles. Over 19 years, our service continues to lead all other TSP advisory services. The average return for the buy-and-hold strategy is +6.94% per year. We are outperforming the buy-and-hold strategy by +5.66%, nearly doubling its overall performance. The G Fund is returning an average of +2.74% per year.

Performance of our ETF Premier System

     — Returns of 2023: The system profited +37.12% YTD vs. +24.23% (Benchmark: S&P 500 Index).

     — Returns of 2022: The system profited +25.36% vs. -19.44% (Benchmark: S&P 500 Index).

View our 2022 & 2023 ETF Premier System Positions and System Results (Excel, PDF).

The ETF Premier System is a service that is totally separate from the TSP Allocation Service. Learn more about the ETF Premier System.

About Our Service

Our signals are tracked by TimerTrac.com, a leading third-party authoritative verifier of timing performance.

Our main goal is to maximize your TSP savings during bull market cycles and protect capital during potentially unstable market periods.

In addition to using technical analysis, we are now validating our interpretation by using a mechanical impulse system. The impulse system uses a combination of trend following and momentum, which maximizes gains when the market is trending. Become a member today to our valuable service and gain an understanding of the market in our very comprehensive newsletter.

Our proprietary methodology uses technical analysis and gathers statistical information from past trading activity. We then analyze this information contained in technical charts to forecast the price direction of the Thrift Savings Plan funds (G Fund, F Fund, C Fund, S Fund, and I Fund). Our number one goal is to produce results that consistently outperform the buy-and-hold strategy of investing. The buy-and-hold is not a smart way to invest, since it takes years to recover when the market crashes.

The two primary long term trends of the stock market are either a secular bull market or a secular bear market. Secular bull markets can sometimes last over twenty years. The most prosperous secular bull markets were from 1943-66 and 1983-2000. On the other hand, secular bear markets normally last between 8-14 years and sometimes longer. The last secular bear market was from years 2000 to 2009. Since March 2009, the S&P 500 has been in a secular bull market. Within any secular market, there will be many bull and bear market cycles.

The bear cycle that occurred in year 2008 and early 2009 crashed over 57%. The market then experienced the next bull cycle beginning in March 2009. Our methodology and returns are independent of market conditions. Our track record shows a long-term consistency in outperforming the buy-and-hold strategy of both bullish and bearish cycles within secular 'long-term' bullish and bearish market environments. In all market conditions, it is essential that we trade our accounts so that: (1) we protect our capital during a crash within a bear cycle, and (2) continue to outperform the buy-and-hold strategy of investing in bullish and bearish cycles within secular bull and bear markets.

Reasons why it is imperative to trade the stock market as opposed to the buy-and-hold strategy can be viewed in a few charts which graphically show: (1) historical secular bull and bear markets of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, (2) secular markets explained by trends in the price/earnings ratios (P/E) of the S&P 500 Index, and (3) how just by using a simple price and moving average crossover technique applied to a bear and bull cycle of the S&P 500 Index will 'greatly' outperform the buy-and-hold strategy of investing.

Our proprietary methodology focuses on analyzing the most important technical elements to properly forecast market direction. In our analysis, we do not get stuck on silly things like Bollinger bands. We use all technical elements at our disposal, and focus on what consistently works in various market environments.

As a member you will receive:

Instant Access

Members will have access to the exclusive Members Only page with the latest
updates for the various thrift funds (G, F, C, S, and I Funds).

"TSPFundTrading.com's Weekly Newsletter"
with Professional Chart Analysis & Commentary

Sample Newletter

The newsletter will be posted on the Members Only page each Wednesday after the close of the market to update members with our fundamental and technical interpretation of the market and the future short-, intermediate- and long-term outlook. We will provide our recommendations for attaining the highest-reward/lowest-risk in the various funds for the short-term. A few elements we will focus on include:

Current Fund Distribution

This section will provide our current percentage breakdown for the various funds in order to achieve the highest-reward / lowest-risk results.

E-mail Alert

Members will receive an e-mail and/or text alert when we believe it is best to make an Interfund Transfer; meaning there has been a change in percentage distribution of funds (see sample). Members will also receive an e-mail each Wednesday after the market closes, as a reminder that our weekly newsletter has been posted on the members page.

First-Class Member Support

We focus on quality customer service and respond to all emails in a timely manner. Members will receive full privacy protection, and will absolutely not receive spam or advertisements.


Sincerely,


Robert W Dillon, Ph.D.
Founder & Chief Technical Analyst

TSPFundTrading.com, LLC
Editor@TSPFundTrading.com

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