About Us

Robert W. Dillon, Ph.D. is the founder and chief technical analyst of TSPFundTrading.com, LLC. Dr. Dillon has more than 30 years of experience in the financial markets and has developed a disciplined, rules-based methodology for trading the TSP funds. In addition to his market experience, he has taught 63 courses at five universities and academic institutions as an Adjunct Professor. Over the years, Dr. Dillon has developed several investment models and refined his approach to risk management, with an emphasis on preserving capital and identifying opportunities to profit in both bullish and bearish market environments.

TSPFundTrading.com is a professional financial service dedicated to providing expert analysis of the Thrift Savings Plan funds. Our primary objective is to help Federal employees and members of the uniformed services, including the Ready Reserve, increase their retirement savings through a disciplined, low-risk approach designed to perform in both rising and declining markets. Since our launch on January 1, 2005, our mission has remained unchanged: to maximize returns during favorable market conditions while protecting capital during periods of heightened risk and uncertainty.

Many financial advisors utilize Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which seeks to maximize expected returns for a given level of risk through diversification among various asset classes. Although MPT remains widely used throughout the financial industry, some of its underlying assumptions have come under increasing scrutiny in recent years, particularly during periods when stocks and bonds decline simultaneously. In such environments, investors relying solely on traditional diversification may experience significantly greater risk than anticipated.

Most MPT-based portfolios include allocations to exchange-traded funds (ETFs), an approach that shares similarities with the Federal government's Lifecycle Funds. While diversification has many advantages, all stock and bond investments are subject to market fluctuations. Predicting market movements based solely on economic forecasts or fundamental analysis can be extremely difficult and, during severe bear markets, devastating to retirement savings. Market declines of 50% have occurred multiple times throughout history, and many investors have experienced them firsthand. Recovering from a 50% loss requires approximately five consecutive years of 15% annual returns simply to return to breakeven.

Our objective is to provide the expertise, analysis, and guidance necessary to help investors maximize returns while protecting capital under a wide range of market conditions. Through a disciplined and systematic approach, we have developed a methodology for trading the TSP funds that has consistently outperformed a traditional buy-and-hold strategy over the long term.

Our Strategy combines a mechanical methodology with a disciplined rules-based approach. The mechanical component consists of proprietary algorithmic scripts, each utilizing unique settings and parameters developed through years of research and refinement. The rules-based component establishes the criteria used to determine changes in signal status and TSP fund allocations.

In addition, we publish a comprehensive weekly newsletter containing detailed technical analysis and market commentary. However, our fund allocations are not based on subjective chart interpretation. Rather, they are generated by our proprietary system. The objective of our methodology is to provide superior risk-adjusted returns while seeking to outperform a traditional buy-and-hold approach over the long term. One of the challenges associated with buy-and-hold investing is that major market declines can require many years for investors to fully recover.

The two primary long-term market environments are secular bull markets and secular bear markets. Secular bull markets can last for decades. Two of the most notable secular bull markets occurred during the periods 1943-1966 and 1983-2000. In contrast, secular bear markets have historically lasted between eight and fourteen years, and sometimes longer. The most recent secular bear market extended from 2000 through early 2009. Since March 2009, the S&P 500 Index has generally remained within a secular bull market. Within these longer-term trends, investors experience numerous shorter-term bull and bear market cycles.

During the bear market cycle of 2008 and early 2009, the S&P 500 declined by more than 57% before beginning a new bull market in March 2009. Our methodology is designed to adapt to changing market conditions, and our long-term track record reflects a consistent effort to outperform traditional buy-and-hold investing during both bullish and bearish cycles. Regardless of the broader market environment, our primary objectives remain the same: (1) to protect capital during periods of heightened risk, and (2) to seek superior long-term returns compared to passive investment strategies.

The importance of active risk management can be illustrated by several charts which demonstrate: (1) the historical secular bull and bear markets of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, (2) secular market trends as reflected in price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of the S&P 500 Index, and (3) how a simple price and moving-average crossover technique applied to major bull and bear cycles can potentially produce superior results relative to a passive buy-and-hold strategy.

Our proprietary methodology is designed to identify opportunities across a wide range of market environments. The algorithmic techniques we have developed are applicable not only to the TSP funds, but also to stock and bond markets in general. These same principles form the foundation of our network of market timing services, including TSPFundTrading.com, TSPMarketTiming.com, StockMarketTiming.com, QQQTrading.com, GoldSilverSystem.com, and ETFTiming.com.

Our signals and performance are independently tracked by TimerTrac.com, a respected third-party organization that monitors and verifies market timing results.

Education and Experience

Dr. Robert W. Dillon holds three degrees in the sciences: a Bachelor of Science degree in Earth Science from the University of New Orleans, and both Master of Science and Doctor of Philosophy degrees in Geology & Geophysics from the Missouri University of Science & Technology, with specialties in geochemistry, hydrogeology, and geophysics. He graduated magna cum laude in his graduate studies.

Prior to entering the financial industry, Dr. Dillon worked for Texaco, Inc. as an onshore development reservoir geologist, where he constructed structure, isopach, and fault-plane maps and evaluated potential drilling locations. He later worked for the U.S. Geological Survey, National Mapping Division. Following the completion of his graduate studies and teaching assignments at several academic institutions, he founded his own market analysis business in 1999. Since then, he has devoted his efforts to developing quantitative trading methodologies and helping investors pursue their long-term financial objectives.

Dr. Dillon's scientific background, combined with decades of market experience and technical analysis research, has provided him with a disciplined and analytical approach to investing. In addition to his work in the financial markets, he is also an accomplished fingerstyle guitarist and recording artist.

Dr. Dillon maintains high ethical standards and seeks to avoid conflicts of interest. Having begun investing long before the Internet era, he has witnessed firsthand the evolution of the financial markets. In the early 1980s, market information was gathered from newspapers, company reports, and publications such as The Wall Street Journal, with trades executed through traditional stock brokers. During those years, he frequently constructed his own charts by hand using daily price data obtained from newspapers.

With the rapid growth of personal computers and charting software during the 1980s and 1990s, technical analysis became increasingly accessible to individual investors. Over the years, Dr. Dillon has studied and experimented with a wide variety of trading methodologies and has experienced virtually every type of market environment. Through these experiences, he has gained a deep appreciation for the timeless principles underlying technical analysis. While technology and methods of execution continue to evolve, the basic forces that drive markets remain unchanged. Human emotions such as fear and greed, expressed through crowd psychology, continue to be reflected in the relationship between price and time. These enduring characteristics form the foundation of technical analysis and continue to influence market behavior today.

Business Location: Naples, FL