Frequently Asked Questions
We have posted the most frequently asked questions "FAQs" from our members. If you have a question, please scan through our list. You may find other questions that you may have not thought about. If you are not clear about an answer or your question is not on the list, we invite your response and additional questions. Thanks!
We have grouped our questions / answers into 4 categories for conveniency:
General Information /
Trading Questions /
Market Timing /
Site Specific Questions
Can I have the TSP trading signals sent via a text message? You can request to receive the TSP Alerts via SMS text messages. Visit the procedure SMS Text Message for TSP Alerts. Once you have the proper formation, write to us with this information at Editor@TSPFundTrading.com. In the email, provide your name and email when you registered. We will then add your sms txt address to the TSP Alert distribution list.
Can I change my Email and/or SMS Text Address? You can change your Email and/or SMS Text address by writing to us at editor@tspfundtrading.com. In the email, state your old and new e-mail addresses and/or old and new text addresses.
What are the TSP Funds?
There are five investment options that are available to the millions of federal employees. They are the:
(1) G Fund: Government Securities Investments, (2) F Fund: Fixed Income Index Investments, (3) C Fund: Common Stock Index Investments,
(4) S Fund: Small Capitalization Stock Index Investments, and (5) I Fund: International Stock Index Investments.
Please visit our TSP Funds page, which explains each fund in detail.
What are the best ticker symbols to use for tracking the funds? They are: AGG for the F Fund, $SPX for the C Fund, $DWCPF for the S Fund, and EFA for the I Fund. There is no ticker symbol to track the G Fund.
I have never invested before, where do I start? There are numerous resources on the Internet designed to help educate new investors. We strongly suggest you visit the Securites Exchange
Commission's web site. This page is a great place to start.
I have some questions about making an Interfund Transfer. Where do I go to find this information? We encourage you to visit the official Thrift Savings Plan web site for government employees. The URL for their web site is
www.TSP.GOV. You will find everything you need to know there.
When there is a new IFT, how do I make the change? First go to TSP.gov and log into your account. Click on "Change Investments" on the top tab. Go to "Move money between funds" and click on "Get Started." 1. Choose Funds to Move Money From - fill in 100% for each fund(s) you currently have, and continue. 2. Choose Funds to Move Money To - fill in the allotments that are recommended (make sure they total to 100%), and continue. 3. Review - and Submit.
When you release a new trading signal does this apply to personal contributions as well as the Interfund Transfer (IFT)? When our system issues a new trade, this only applies to an IFT, which is your TSP balance, not your contributions. So when I say I am making an allocation change, I am referring to my balance and HAVE to use an IFT to do so. One doesn't need to use an IFT to make a contribution change and what you have your new money (contributions) buying is really up to you. We are traders, so that new money will be transferred to your new balance allocation at your next IFT anyway.
When the market is going strong, should I allocate 100% in one specific fund when making an interfund transfer on the tsp.gov site? Overall, we personally believe in diversification. An investor should always attempt to minimize risk, meaning never put all of your
eggs in the same basket. We can not advise anyone how much capital they should trade. Everyone has their own financial objectives and risk tolerances.
Everyone is responsible for their own final financial decisions. However, we will state our opinion as to what we are doing in our own account, our
reasoning behind our decision, and the percentage breakdown between the various funds.
Ok, since you strongly believe in diversification, what is a good method you would use in your decision process to assign the
percentages between the funds? On our members page, we assess the current market condition using fundamental and technical chart analysis. We also present our opinion by writing technical
commentary for each of the funds.
Here's a specific example: The S&P is currently undergoing a little profit taking, but we do not expect the decline to be that significant.
The negative divergence we mentioned in last week's newsletter is now taking effect as the stock declines. However, since the divergence was not an
extreme amount, it is almost worked off since then. We are still sticking to our recognition of the all important Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level.
We iterate what we stated two weeks ago: "We believe the S&P will tag a Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the 2000 high to the 2002 low. That equates to
a move to 1253.45 for the S&P 500 index (about $125.3 for SPY). We calculated this number by using the March 24, 2000 S&P high of 1553.11 and the
October 10, 2002 S&P low of 768.67. The difference between these values is 784.44 points. Multiplying this value by 0.618 gives 484.78, and then adding
this to the 2002 low of 768.67 equates to 1253.45." This value also plots out to be very close to where trendline resistance is shown on the chart
(see blue trendline). Therefore, if the fund continues to approach this level, we will definitely be interested in switching to less risky funds,
probably the F Fund (ticker: AGG) and G Fund. Our conclusion of last week is still valid: ... "For now, we foresee a short-term pullback to work
off the small amount of bearish divergence, and then the index should increase toward the 0.618 Fib level."
What is the general length of time in a certain fund(s) before switching to another fund(s)? There is no general answer that fits all conditions. The market is an ever changing beast. If the stock market is trending up, we may
suggest for members to have the majority of their savings in the stock funds. If the market is going lateral or trending down, we may
suggest for members to have most of their savings in the G or F Funds. How long they must stay in these funds is only known by Mr. Market.
Meaning, we have to see a change in character of the market and/or notice something through fundamental or technical analysis that warrants caution or the
likelihood of profitability. Hopefully we recognize the potential of change before it happens. All we can say, is that we assess the current
market condition on a day-to-day basis and present our opinion to the best of our ability. In addition, all trades will adhere to the New Interfund Transfer Rule.
Can you explain in detail the New Interfund Transfer Rule? As per the New Interfund Transfer Rule your first two IFTs can redistribute money in your account among any or all of the TSP funds. After that, for the remainder of the month, your IFTs can only move money into the Government Securities Investment (G) Fund (in which case, you will increase the percentage of your account held in the G Fund by reducing the percentage held in one or more of the other TSP funds.
What is the difference between long, intermediate, and short-term trends? Market trends are generally divided into three categories: major (long-term), intermediate, and short-term. A major trend usually lasts for more than a year. Since the stock market peaked in October 2007, the current downturn is "major" in scope. There were three major (long-term trends) in the eight years since 2000. The stock market experienced a two-year downtrend from 2000 to 2002, a five-year uptrend from 2003 to 2007, and a one-year downtrend since then. Monthly MACD lines provided three major signals in the last eight years -- a major sell in 2000, a major buy in 2003, and major sell at the end of 2007. The major trend is by far the most important because it overrides signals on weekly and daily charts.
Intermediate trends represent corrections to major trends and generally last from one to six months. The market experienced an "intermediate" bounce from March to May '08. The bounce lasted 10 weeks before turning back down again. In addition, the intermediate bounce retraced a half of the previous downtrend from October '07 to March '08. That's pretty typical. The least important trend is the "short-term" variety.
Short-term trends, which are generally shown on daily charts, usually last less than a month. In many cases, they may last for only a week or two. There were a number of short-term bounces over the last six months. The rally during July and August '08 lasted a month as did the "triangle" formation during October '08. The triangle formation was composed of two short bounces that lasted about a week each. One of the ways to determine if a short-term bounce is turning into an intermediate rebound is the market's ability to climb over its 50-day moving average.
I've heard through the grapevine that you offer a service for trading Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Can you tell me more about this service? Our ETF Premier System is designed to build capital with funds not related to your TSP retirement savings. To be a part of this service, all you will need is an online broker account, like Schwab.com.
This is how the system works. When we have selected an ETF to trade, we will send out an ETF Alert via email and/or text message. This is not to be confused with our TSP Allocation Service (or TSP Alert), which involves the 5 TSP Funds for your retirement savings. The ETF Premier System is a service that is totally separate from the TSP Allocation Service.
If you would like to trade the ETF that we have selected, then you will need to go to your online brokerage account and place the trade. How many shares to purchase is up to you. Once the trade is placed, all you need to do is wait for the next ETF Alert. For further detail or to sign up, please visit this page "Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) Premier System."
How are your allocations generated? Our service uses a combination of a mechanical system and a rules-based system. The indicators we created for the mechanical system are specific algorithm scripts, each having settings and parameters that are proprietary. The rules-based system has specific criteria that have to be met for assigning the percentage allocations of the Thrift Savings Plan funds (G, F, C, S, and I Funds).
What is the purpose and objective of your service? Our service is designed to consistently outperform the buy-and-hold strategy of investing. Our primary objective
is to help government employees increase their Thrift Savings in a low risk / high reward manner in both bullish and bearish markets. Bottom
line: Our primary goal is to help our members move their thrift savings forward. We believe that market timing through proper use
of fundamental and technical analysis is the only method in acheiving this goal.
What is contained in the weekly newsletter? The newsletter contains technical commentary so that the subscriber can learn how to analyze the markets. The newsletter is subdivided in sections: the top portion contains the market overview of the S&P 500 Index (C Fund) for the short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term analysis. And we have individual technical write-ups for the S, I and F Funds. We annotate and interpret the charts using our experience of over 40 years. Our interpretation becomes relatively standard for recognizing the broader trend, levels of support and resistance, divergence/convergence indicators, retracement levels, relative strength, market sentiment, and oversold/overbought conditions of the indexes to name a few.
When should we expect to receive your comments? We will post our comments on the members only page each Friday. After the page has been updated, members
will receive an immediate e-mail alert. Also, when there has been a change in character of the market, we will suggest to make an Interfund
Transfer. This e-mail will show the exact breakdown of percentages for the various funds.
As soon as I become a member and visit the members page, do I enter a fund immediately even if the current stock price has already
moved in a specific direction? This is entirely up to you and your professional advisor for a final decision. In general, the answer is yes.
Is investment news and other research data taken into consideration? We are always aware of the financial news, but most media coverage only highlights what is happening on a daily basis. Rarely do we find anything useful for our decision making process. Normally, the charts (technical analysis) tell the story about the market. Fundamentalists will always try to explain movements
of the stock market based on reasoning. However, fundamentalists can always come up with justifications or reasons why the market moved in a certain direction. When we use fundamentals in our decisions, we try to look forward and weigh what is important and what is not. In general, fundamentals can not be applied on a short-term basis to consistently beat the market. Fundamentals are only applicable to intermediate- to long-term horizons.
Who are your members? Our members are civilians and uniformed service employees (Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, and the Coast Guard). The largest majority of our members are part of the FERS (Federal Employees Retirement System), though we do have many members who invest in the TSP who are part of the CSRS (Civil Service Retirement System). Even Federal employees who left the government service, can still make interfund transfers. We even have a growing number of professional investors, stockbrokers, money managers, financial planners and investment advisors who have joined our service as well. The majority of our members are hard-working government employees who seek guidance in the stock market and want to maximize their hard-earned retirement savings. We also believe our members are those who may have tried the buy-and-hold strategy, and have lost money through this strategy. And we have recently found that members are tired of being part of the Lifecycle Funds, which is not a good concept when the market is bearish or caught in a trading zone for many years.
What is your rate of renewals? We have a high rate of renewals. We do not have the exact percentage since this would require a lot of time to go through all our member lists and calculate the rates. What we can say is that many members who did not renew try to assign the allocations on their own, and come back later in time and re-subscribe.
Does your company also trade the stock funds? Yes, we trade the stock funds.
We believe our system provides a lower risk method of investing, as opposed to the buy-and-hold
strategy of investing. The buy-and-hold method will always be subject to higher risk, volatility, and many uncontrollable factors that
can negatively impact the stock fund prices and your savings. Everyone should be familiar with the crash of 2000 through 2002, when the C Fund lost
nearly 50% of its value. All of my friends and acquaintenances lost money during that time. One acquaintenance decided to leave his savings during that time in
the C Fund and took a $60,000 loss. Then, when the S&P was at bottom in the 3rd quarter of 2002, he decided to cash out of the stock market all
together, swore to never get back in ever again, and put his savings into the G Fund. Now, it will be difficult for him to rebuild his savings
back to where it initially was in year 2000 based on the annual gains of the G Fund. Another friend, who always believed
strongly in the G Fund, never cared to venture out into the C Fund. But, when everyone else were talking about how much money they were making
in the stock market (C Fund) during 1995 through 2000, he finally decided to jump in and switch to the C Fund like everyone else. However,
his timing was totally wrong ... he made the big switch in April 2000. It was relatively easy for me to identify the bull market was over in year 2000,
since the 50-day moving average cross below the 200-day moving average, and the major uptrend was broken to the downside. These criteria defined the
initiation of a major bear market was in store for a couple of years. During that time, years 2000 - 2002, everyone should have been allocating most
of their funds into the G or F Funds, and not into the C Fund. Investors should have waited until there was confirmation
of a new major uptrend and the 50-dma crossed above the 200-dma. Simple rules that can significantly protect and preserve one's capital, and wait
for better times.
Who provides the signal changes and information in the newsletter?
Our chief technical chart analyst and developer of the service is Robert W. Dillon, Ph.D. Robert holds a masters and doctorate degree in the fields of Geology and Geophysics from the Missouri University of Science & Technology. Robert worked for a major oil company (1980-83) and the US Geological Survey for 15 years (1984-99). However, due to his financial success in trading the stock market, he became semi-retired at the age of 41 and switched careers to provide guidance to Federal employees. He has over 30 years of experience trading the stock market and specializes in technical analysis. Robert has a vast amount of experience in interpretation of highly complex charts. He is also a master fingerstyle guitarist. The combination of his scientific and creative abilities with the stock market using technical analysis, gives him a pure analytical advantage over traditional strategies used by money managers.
Robert holds the highest level of ethical standards and avoids any conflicts of interest. He has tested & experimented with almost every style of technical trading. Robert has extensively traded the market and experienced every imaginable technical and emotional situation. He has watched the markets change from cold calling to open-outcry and speed dialed phones to high-frequency trading and the dominance of the Algos, not to mention what goes on behind the scenes not available to the public. Through all of that, the greatest teacher of course, is the market itself. And while the speed and method of execution may change, the fundamental truths that underly technical analysis remain the same. Fear and greed reflected in crowd dynamics are always represented within a simple price vs. time chart.
Robert is also on contractual basis with Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) who manage Assets Under Management (AUM).
What is your privacy policy?
Our company is committed to protecting your privacy while using our site. This is explained in detail in our
Private Policy page.
Does your company offer any free trial periods? We do not offer any free trials. We do offer a full money back guarantee within the first 48 hours after you become a member if you are unsatistifed
with our service. The most important reason why we do not offer free trials is because our system is designed to slowly beat the index funds. We do
not want to give the impression that this a get rich quick scheme. Our system requires patience. There are a lot of other web sites that virtually
promise quick returns. Please be cautious of those systems.
Will your company manage my account? At this time, we do not manage any personal accounts for our members, and probably will not in the future.
After I become a member is there confirmation of this? Once authorization is approved, you will receive our confirmation response via e-mail. You will then be able to log into the members
page with the latest updates!
Once I become a member, can I change my email address in the future? Yes, just send an e-mail to
editor@tspfundtrading.com and include your old and new e-mail addresses.
General Information:
Trading Questions:
Market Timing:
Site Specific Questions: